Railway Data Book - July 2026: Better-than-expected Shinkansen demand in 1Q

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Railway Data Book - July 2026: Better-than-expected Shinkansen demand in 1Q

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Railways - Japan

Railway Data Book - July 2026: Better-

than-expected Shinkansen demand in 1Q

Industry Overview

Overall things are still holding up 24 July 2026

Early July data points to better-than-expected Shinkansen passenger volume growth Equity

despite tougher comparisons against last year's World Expo-related demand. There are Japan

some concerns that peak summer travel demand could shift toward the autumn holiday Railways

season as increasingly hot weather discourages travel during the summer months. Hiro Nakakura, CFA >>

Inbound visitor volume declined more than 5% YoY in 1Q (Apr-Jun), which was not a Research Analyst

major surprise given a 58% YoY decline in Chinese visitor arrivals over the same period. Merrill+65 6678Lynch0972(Singapore)

Despite lower visitor numbers, total inbound spending was broadly flat (+0.2% YoY). hiro.nakakura@bofa.com

Nathan Gee, CFA >>

Shinkansen: Better-than-expected start to July ResearchMerrill LynchAnalyst(Singapore)

June traffic was slightly weaker than expected, primarily due to typhoon-related nathan.gee@bofa.com

disruptions, and we had anticipated softer demand at JR Central and JR West as Daisuke Aikawa >>

Research Analyst

comparisons become more challenging following last year's Expo-related boost. BofAS Japan

However, JR Central reported 4% YoY growth at Tokyo Gate in July (through July 22), daisuke.aikawa@bofa.com

while JR West's Sanyo Shinkansen traffic increased by more than 5% YoY (through July Amy Han >>

14). JR East had limited exposure to Expo-related demand last year, but Obon Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

reservation data also remains solid, with Shinkansen bookings up 6% YoY as of July 22. amy.han@bofa.com

Hazel Xue >>