Dubai Taxi Company: 2Q25: A longer road to taxi trip normalisation

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Dubai Taxi Company: 2Q25: A longer road to taxi trip normalisation

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Dubai Taxi Company

2Q25: A longer road to taxi trip

normalisation

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 2.80 AED | Price: 2.10 AED

Revenues ahead of cons; earnings weaker than expected 27 July 2026

2Q26A revenues were +4%/+22% vs. cons/BofAe, as a 6% QoQ decrease in trip volumes Equity

(-24% YoY) was better than expected. Fuel prices and one-time salary support measures

impacted earnings, with EBITDA -7%/-9% vs. BofA/cons and net income -50%/-44%. The

Key Changessemi-annual dividend is being prudently replaced by an annual dividend for 2026A, and

the integration of National Taxi through 2H26 should support incremental cash (AED) Previous Current

generation. We reduce our PO by 5% to AED2.80/sh, incorporating a slower normalisation Price Obj. 2.95 2.80

path for taxi volumes and higher fuel costs, offset by the margin-accretive National Taxi 2026E EPS 0.09 0.08

acquisition, and cost of capital updates. Reiterate Buy with 33% upside potential. 2027E EPS 0.14 0.12

2026E DPS 0.08 0.07

Optimism on volume normalisation appears premature

Taxi and limo trip volumes have improved MoM in 2Q, whilst the YoY decline has Jameel Bakhsh, CFA >>

narrowed (March: -42%, April: -37%, May: -24%, June: -11%). Management is optimistic ResearchMerrill LynchAnalyst(DIFC)

this will continue and normalisation (YoY) can be achieved in 2H26. However, we view +971 4 425 8252

jameel.bakhsh@bofa.com

this trend as a seasonal effect in a low-tourist period. We see a less supportive backdrop

Michael Jacks, CFA >>

after the back-to-school/resident return season in 4Q26E, with regional tensions likely Research Analyst

to limit the strength of the usual tourism-driven uplift.