Global FX weekly: Smoke signals

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Global FX weekly: Smoke signals

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Global FX weekly

Smoke signals

The View 24 July 2026

G10 FX. No smoke without fire: quiet G10 FX masks looming policy risks in the US, FX Research

Japan and the UK. Short EUR/USD, long JPY (vs. CHF & CAD), long GBPUSD forward vol. Global

EM FX. Triple trouble: Conflict, Trade tensions and El Nino to pressure EM FX. Stay Table of Contents

short ZAR as key hedge, short EUR/CNH on trade tensions.

Key views, forecasts and latest trades 2

G10 Themes Week ahead 3

GBP. Awaiting details on “fiscal flexibility” – we turn neutral on GBP. The View 4

G10 Themes 6

EUR: German fiscal roughly on track, slippage rising. Reforms are tentative good news.

UK - Trading Places 6

G10 FX. Non-carry, non-USD opportunities in G10 FX – NZD crosses attractive. Germany: lots of caution with sprinkles of

optimism

Sell CAD/JPY. BOC pricing overdone & USMCA uncertainty rising. Japan BoP improving. Crossing the Pond(s): G10 FX Opportunities

EM Themes outside the USD

Short CAD/JPY 9

EUR/CNH. Enter 2M 7.55 EUR/CNH digital put on divergent trade cycle

EM Themes 10

Asia FX. Asia FX Monthly – feeling the summer heat Enter 2M 7.55 EUR/CNH digital put 10

Asia FX– feeling the summer heat 11

LatAm FX. Second Half

LatAm FX: Second half 12

EMFX. Quant EM – The Carry-Ons are Packed EMFX: The Carry-Ons Are Packed 13

Technical Strategy 15

Technical Strategy Trade Recommendations G10 16

Euro broke technical support and formed a bearish continuation pattern that implies Trade Recommendations EM 18

short-term downside to 1.1325 / 1/13 / 1.1240 while below 1.1436. World At A Glance Projections 20

Research Analysts 25

G10 FX Strategy

MLI (UK)

+1 646 855 9342

Claudio Piron

Emerging Asia FI/FX Strategist

Merrill Lynch (Singapore)

+65 6678 0401

claudio.piron@bofa.com