Alzchem Group AG: Hold your firepower

研报英文原文证据摘录

Alzchem Group AG: Hold your firepower

Executive summary

German growth chemical company

Alzchem is a German chemicals company built around its integrated NCN chemistry

platform, generating €562m of sales and €120m of EBITDA in 2025. The company has

successfully repositioned its portfolio towards higher-growth, higher-margin products

and is now entering a record investment cycle, which we expect to drive EBITDA growth

of 10% CAGR through 2030.

Defence + human nutrition growth at superior returns

Alzchem owns two of the highest-quality growth platforms in European chemicals:

Nitroguanidine (NQ), a mission-critical defence input, and premium creatine, where it

combines market leadership with a consumer quality brand. Together, we estimate NQ

and creatine account for >50% of EBITDA today and drive the majority of incremental

growth through 2030 at highly accretive margins. Alzchem is the second-highest ROCE

company in our chemicals coverage. The current growth projects should also be ROCE

accretive, supported by external funding for NQ. With this funding support, we expect

FCF to remain flat to positive and balance sheet strength to be retained through 2030,

despite >€400m of growth investments.

Valuation: reflects growth assets and superior returns

We initiate at Neutral despite the attractive defence and creatine exposure, as valuation

captures the scarcity value and sector-leading returns. The stock trades on c9x 2030e

EBITDA (post expansion ramp-up), which represents a c30% premium to defence peers

and a >30% premium to chemicals peers. We think current tightness in NQ and creatine

represents peak EBITDA margin conditions. As Alzchem debottlenecks, we expect growth

to become volume-led, rather than driven by net-pricing and volumes Therefore, we