Asia Economic Weekly: RBI: Threading a three-circuit policy path

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Asia Economic Weekly: RBI: Threading a three-circuit policy path

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Asia Economic Weekly

RBI: Threading a three-circuit policy path

This week in focus 24 July 2026

Policy support remains in focus as growth and inflation trends diverge across the region. GEM Fixed Income Strategy &

In China, the downside surprise in 2Q growth is likely to reduce policymakers' Economics

complacency and increase the likelihood of renewed policy easing. We expect Asia

policymakers to signal a rhetorical shift as early as the July Politburo meeting. In India,

strong demand for the RBI's FX swap window has reinforced confidence in the country's Table of Contents

external financing outlook. In Indonesia, BI kept rates unchanged while introducing This Week in Focus 2

targeted FX and liquidity measures to support financial conditions. In New Zealand,

India in Focus 3

upside inflation surprises have strengthened the case for further monetary tightening.

Data Preview 5

RBI navigates a three-circuit policy path Macro Forecasts 7

As things stand, the immediacy of policy imperatives has declined for the Reserve Bank Research Analysts 12

of India, but the fog of economic ambiguity stays intact at a distance. While the external

pressures, especially from global commodity prices, have moderated, the RBI still needs Helen Qiao

to navigate new headwinds, and cross new rivers by feeling the stones, to ensure there China & Asia Economist

Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

is no policy slippage or error. helen.qiao@bofa.com

Week ahead IzumiJapan EconomistDevalier

BofAS Japan

In the coming week, we turn our focus to the monetary policy meeting in Japan along

with a flurry of data releases across the region. We expect BOJ to keep the policy rate RahulIndia &BajoriaASEAN Economist