World at a Glance: Summer storms

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World at a Glance: Summer storms

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World at a Glance

Summer storms

Key forecasts in FX, rates and commodities 22 July 2026

Market anxiety grows as military action resumes in the Middle East, the trade war also FX, Rates and Commodities

continues, and of course US midterm elections loom closer. Still, our core macro Global

forecasts remain broadly unchanged in rates, FX and commodities.

FX Rates & Commodities Research

G10 FX: no revisions MLI (UK)

John Shin

We continue to look for near-term USD upside risk, but look for modest medium-term FX Strategist

depreciation. We do not make any changes to our G10 FX forecasts, and still look for BofAS

+1 646 855 2582

end-2026 EUR-USD at 1.15. joong.s.shin@bofa.com

David Hauner, CFA >>

Global EM FI/FX StrategistInterest rates: keeping forecasts unchanged

MLI (UK)

Our US Economics team continues to expect the Federal Reserve to hike three times david.hauner@bofa.com

this year, while we also expect US10yr yields to be focused around the 4.50% level in Claudio Irigoyen

our forecasts. Global Economist

BofAS

claudio.irigoyen@bofa.com

EM FX: continue to look for end-2026 USD-CNY at 6.70 Pedro Diaz

We do not make any changes to our core major EM FX forecasts as well, including our Caribbean Economist

views for CNY, INR, BRL or MXN. In particular, we continue to look for end-2026 USD- pdiaz2@bofa.com

CNY to be 6.70. Claudio Piron

Emerging Asia FI/FX Strategist

Commodities: watching Mideast developments Merrillclaudio.piron@bofa.comLynch (Singapore)

We continue to keep our baseline projections for Brent and WTI to average $82/bbl and Helen Qiao

$78/bbl, respectively, in 2026. Since last month, we have had revisions in natural gas China & Asia Economist Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

forecasts. helen.qiao@bofa.com

Michael Widmer