The EM Asia FX Strategist: Asia FX Monthly – feeling the summer heat

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The EM Asia FX Strategist: Asia FX Monthly – feeling the summer heat

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The EM Asia FX Strategist

Asia FX Monthly – feeling the summer heat

Summary of FX views 23 July 2026

CNY/CNH (bullish): We expect USD/CNY to consolidate around its recent range as DXY GEM FI & FX Strategy

stays supported, but remain constructive on CNY in the medium term on robust exports. EM Asia

HKD (neutral): A widening yield differential between the US and HK could encourage

Table of Contentsmore carry trades and push USD/HKD higher toward 7.85 in 2H.

INR (neutral): Flows are turning favorable as improving portfolio and deposit inflows China 2

replenish the RBI’s reserves and provide ammunition to cap topside risks. Hong Kong 3

IDR (bearish): A brief respite is possible near term as peak seasonal USD demand is India 3

behind us and a low IDR NEER keeps BI defensive against capital-flight pressure. Indonesia 3

KRW (bearish): KRW has staged a strong comeback in recent weeks, but we are not yet Korea 3

turning medium-term bullish given the structural issue of portfolio outflows. Malaysia 3

MYR (neutral): MYR likely range-bound as strong domestic fundamentals could be offset The Philippines 3

by political uncertainty ahead of state elections. USD beta remains the key driver for now. Singapore 3

PHP (bearish): Oil price fluctuations a key risk for PHP, along with US rates repricing. Taiwan 3

BSP smoothing and rate hikes are marginally supportive. We change YE forecast to 63. Thailand 3

Vietnam 3

SGD (neutral): Tightening expectations are rising, driven by growth optimism. A slope

FX Models 3

increase is needed to reduce negative carry on SNEER and shift the range slightly higher.

Acronyms and Abbreviations 3