China F&B: cost pressures recede, but growth headwinds remain

研报英文原文证据摘录

China F&B: cost pressures recede, but growth headwinds remain

CR Bev: earnings reset on weak demand and margins

We trim 2026/27E EPS 19%/17% and lower our PO 14% to HK$9.0. We expect 1H26

revenue to decline 11% YoY, given continued destocking, weather, and limited product

innovation in beverage. Channel reforms have been progressing steadily but it still takes

more time for CR Bev to return to growth. Given raw-material cost inflation and sales

deleverage, we expect 1H26 NPAT to decline 25% YoY. Although demand visibility

remains limited, we see solid downside protection from its fixed annual dividend of

RMB0.37/share (implying a 5.7% yield). With a net cash position of RMB7.1bn by end-

FY25 (45% of market cap) and major capacity-expansion projects nearing completion by

2026, CR Bev has substantial financial flexibility to sustain or beef up returns. We

reiterate our Neutral rating.

Feihe: near-term tailwinds, structural headwinds

1H26 demand trends remained soft, following the 17% decline of China's newborn in

2025. Recovery in marriage registrations in 2025 (+10.8% YoY) and a preference among

some families to have children in the Year of Horse may support births and Stage 1 (0-6

months) sales in 2026, but we view these as short-lived factors. Weak fertility intentions

and declining number of women at childbearing age remain key structural challenges. We

cut 2026/27E EPS 9%/9% and lower our PO 12% to HK$3.7. However, we expect Feihe’s

channel adjustments to be largely completed, and digitalization initiatives should further

enhance e-commerce capability, inventory discipline, retail price management. In

addition, Feihe’s shareholder returns could provide some downside support with a c.6%

dividend yield. Reiterate Neutral.

Yankershop: 2026 growth to be 2H-loaded