2Q26: beat and raise, but "peak" argument takes center stage

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q26: beat and raise, but "peak" argument takes center stage

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GE Vernova

2Q26: beat and raise, but “peak” argument

takes center stage

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 1,310.00 USD | Price: 985.03 USD

Peak or Plateau? Depends on the orders metric 22 July 2026

Investors voiced concerns about a potential peak in gigawatts (GW) of power equipment Equity

contracts (firm orders + slot reservation agreements). By year-end 2026, management

expects to have contracts for the vast majority of 2027-30 production slots and “over

Key Changeshalf” of 2031 slots. This is inclusive of a further of a newly announced 6 GW capacity

expansion in 2030 (i.e., 20 GW/year capacity in 2H26, rising to 24 GW/year in 2028 and (US$) Previous Current

now 30 GW/year by 2030). Customers are unlikely to further extend planning cycles 2026E Rev (m) 45,494.2 46,641.3

beyond five years, in our view, making it more challenging to y/y orders growth, 2027E Rev (m) 51,438.3 52,116.1

particularly on a volume (i.e., gigawatts) basis. 2028E Rev (m) 57,703.8 58,165.5

2026E EPS 13.98 14.08

2027E EPS 21.88 22.55Dollar orders reaching a plateau; EBITDA growth unabated

In contrast to this gigawatt or unit orders for gas power, we expect GE Vernova’s total 2028E EPS 29.47 29.96

orders in dollar terms to look more like a plateau. This reflects several factors: 1)

positive pricing within the portfolio; 2) Services bookings (+15% y/y organic in 2Q) Andrew Obin

Research Analyst

growing in line with the installed base; 3) Capacity additions in Electrification; and 4) BofAS

Expanding content/scope, most noticeably in data centers. We forecast $82bn of orders +1 646 855 1817 andrew.obin@bofa.com

in 2026E. A similar pace in 2027-28 would put backlog above $210-15bn in 2027 (versus

David Ridley-Lane, CFA