Ahead of Q2: Restructuring weighs now, unlocks value later

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Ahead of Q2: Restructuring weighs now, unlocks value later

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Volkswagen AG

Ahead of Q2: Restructuring weighs now,

unlocks value later

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 90.00 EUR | Price: 72.56 EUR

In line with Cons. for Q2; focus shifts to FY26 guidance 22 July 2026

VW reports Q2 results on 24 July. Following the 13 July pre-close call, we expect limited Equity

surprises, with our estimates broadly in line with consensus. We forecast a 4.7% Group

operating margin, or 5.2% excluding c€400m of special items related to the Bosch JV

Key Changestermination and residual-value adjustments at Financial Services. Price/mix was

negative, reflecting weaker regional and brand mix and intensifying competition in the (EUR) Previous Current

EU and the US, although Q2 net cash flow should be slightly positive (BofAe: €500m). Price Obj. 99.00 90.00

Our forecast would put VW at the low end of its 4.0-5.5% FY26 margin guidance in H1. 2026E EPS 17.14 14.67

We expect VW to retain both its margin and €3-6bn automotive net cash flow guidance 2027E EPS 18.48 16.50

for now, although our FY26 margin forecast stands at just 4.1%. We do not yet include 2028E EPS 20.99 19.52

further restructuring charges, which could be booked later this year but could be just 2026E EBITDA (m) 53,365.3 52,154.4

offset by a revaluation gain on the announced Everllence disposal (25 June 2026) (BofAe: 2027E EBITDA (m) 54,786.3 53,766.6

c€7bn potential cash inflow, up to €3.8bn revaluation gain). 2028E EBITDA (m) 57,935.3 57,242.6

More painful restructuring, but potentially a value unlock 2026E DPS 5.35 4.59

Various media reports (Manager Magazin, Handelsblatt; both from 26 June onwards)

Horst Schneider >>

suggest that VW’s “Group Target Picture 2030” could include phasing out production at Research Analyst