Norsk Hydro: Prices and premiums up, earnings following

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Norsk Hydro: Prices and premiums up, earnings following

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Norsk Hydro

Prices and premiums up, earnings

following

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 98.00 NOK | Price: 85.74 NOK

Q2 earnings beat. Aluminium prices and premiums up. 23 July 2026

Q2 earnings beat. Key figures: EBITDA NOK8.92 bn, +15% YoY, +3% vs consensus Equity

(Visible Alpha). Bauxite and Aluminium, Primary Metal and Extruded Solutions were

ahead, while Metal Markets and Energy light. Beat mainly driven by higher aluminium

Key Changesprices and product premiums, as well as improved earnings in the recycling business.

Lower energy due to hydrology and stronger NOK were a headwind. Model changes: (NOK) Previous Current

We update our model for results. FY26E EBITDA +1% to NOK34.5bn. Price objective Price Obj. 97.00 98.00

moves to NOK98, based on 6x average of 2026E and 2027E EBITDA. Maintain Buy. 2026E EPS 6.88 7.42

2027E EPS 9.85 9.82

2026E DPS 3.44 3.71Slovalco restart. More European aluminium capacity.

On July 1, Norsk Hydro announced the planned restart of the Slovalco smelter following

an agreement on a long-term framework with the Slovak government. The smelter is Equity research

Jason Fairclough >>

expected to restart with 75kt of capacity during H2. This follows several years of Research Analyst

capacity closures caused by the energy crisis. We note that the war in the Middle East MLI (UK)

jason.fairclough@bofa.com

has created an ongoing supply-side shock for aluminium metal. Gulf countries produce c.

Reinhardt van der Walt >>

6.5–7.0 Mt of primary aluminium per year, c. 9% of global supply and more than 20% of Research Analyst

ex‑China production. Much of this metal is exported to Europe and the US. Key MLI (UK)

disruptions include 40% curtailment of Hydro’s 648 ktpa Qatalum JV.