2Q Preview: mix shift weighs on margins, but deleveraging remains the highlight

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q Preview: mix shift weighs on margins, but deleveraging remains the highlight

Accessible version

Brazil Education

2Q Preview: mix shift weighs on margins,

but deleveraging remains the highlight

Estimate Change

Bullish: Ser, Cogna, CSED and Vitru; bearish: YDUQS, Ânima 23 July 2026

We expect the best prints from Ser, Cogna, Cruzeiro and Vitru, supported by solid Equity

deleveraging despite seasonally weaker cash generation. On Cogna, strong FCFE reflects Latin America

non-recurring NTPB revenues, while for Ser the maturation of medicine seats remains Education and Training

the main trigger. For Vitru, solid DL intakes should sustain deleveraging, while for CSED Flavio Yoshida >>

higher re-enrollment is key. On the negative side, YDUQS should post a seasonal cash Research Analyst

burn with flattish EBITDA margin, while Ânima's higher drop-out ratio calls attention. Merrillflavio.yoshida@bofa.comLynch (Brazil)

Mixed revenue trends; Cogna, Ser and Vitru as highlights MirelaResearchOliveiraAnalyst>>

We expect a mixed quarter when it comes to revenue growth as it is increasingly driven Merrillmirela.oliveira@bofa.comLynch (Brazil)

by on-campus and medicine programs, offsetting distance learning headwinds. Cogna

(+14% YoY) should lead top-line growth, boosted by NTBP delayed revenues. On the

other hand, YDUQS (+2%) and Ânima (+3%) should post the softest growth amid DL PDA: provision for doubtful accounts

pressure and regulatory transition challenges. DL: distance learning

NTPB: national textbook program

Margins to remain pressured by mix effects

Rising exposure to on-campus should pressure EBITDA margins across most names,

driven by higher personnel expenses and lower operational leverage. Cogna is expected