Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Robinhood- RobinhoodMarkets, Inc. (HOOD.O)Markets, Inc. (HOOD.O)

Attractive Long-term Growth Potential, But NT Risk of Fading Retail Engagement

PRICE TARGET $124.00 EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

Valuation based on discounting 2031e EPS from existing business and probability weighted ▪Pioneering fintech brand that resonates

new business lines, to which we ascribe a 25x P/E multiple reflecting a more mature business with ~150M-strong Gen Y/Z cohort in the

profile in 2031 and discount back to arrive at our PT. The largest contributors to new early innings of their financial journey.

business EPS include crypto, European brokerage, credit card, and banking / advisory. HOOD has captured ~13m Gen Y/Zers and

we're beginning to see evidence they can $121.83

grow with this demographic.

Consensus Price Target Distribution $54.55 $160.00 of innovation and platform expansion MS PT ▪Pace

accelerating with many new initiativesSource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

(active trader, retirement, card, Europe, etc)

that support a robust revenue outlook.

Banking and advisory businesses expand

RISK REWARD CHART AND OPTIONS IMPLIED PROBABILITIES (12M) TAM and could improve the HOOD

ecosystem, accelerating the flywheel effect.

$238.00(+150.76%)$238.00$238.00(+150.76%)(+150.76%) ProbProbProb (>238.00)~0.0%(>238.00)~0.0%(>238.00)~0.0% ▪Macro uncertainty remains elevated and USD

could weigh on retail investor trading

activity; current revenues are still heavily

200 dependent on transaction-based revenues.

Consensus Rating Distribution

$124.00(+30.65%)$124.00$124.00(+30.65%)(+30.65%) 82% Overweight

ProbProbProb (>124.00)~22.5%(>124.00)~22.5%(>124.00)~22.5%

14% Equal-weight

100 $94.91$94.91$94.91 4% Underweight

MS Rating