2Q26 Preview: Catalyst-Rich Path Ahead Despite 2Q Selloff

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q26 Preview: Catalyst-Rich Path Ahead Despite 2Q Selloff

IdeaM

Executive Summary

2Q earnings kick off late-July for Brokers & Exchanges. We expect overall earnings to be

slightly above consensus on an average basis with the uplift in volumes and volatility

supporting NT revenues in the quarter, despite several broker and market-structure names

screening below consensus. We raise 2Q EPS by average 3.6% (median 0.7%), which

leaves us 0.5% above consensus on an average basis (-0.7% below on median). We

increased forward estimates by an average 6.3% (median 2.7%) in 2026–27, leaving us in

line with consensus in 2026 and 0.2% below consensus in 2027 on an average basis.

Price targets for the Brokers & Exchanges are up 1% and offer 16% upside on an

average basis. Our target multiples on ’27 are down 0.7x turns, or 5%, while ’27 EPS

estimates are up 6.1% on average. Target multiples expand most for HOOD (+4.5x) to

54.0x on 2027 EPS due to a faster growth outlook, progress on newer initiatives, and

improved NNA / volumes through 2Q26. Target multiple contracts most at MKTX (by -

4.0x) to 8.5x EV/EBITDA given persistent market share losses, weaker relative growth vs

fixed-income trading peers, and reduced confidence in MKTX’s ability to re-accelerate

growth.

Elevating LPLA to Top Pick: AI concerns are overdone, NNA should recover as

Commonwealth integration focus fades, and valuation at 10.5x 2027E EPS is too cheap for

a 22% EPS growth profile. Shares trade at a meaningful discount to LPLA’s 13.9x five-year

historical multiple, while our 13.0x target multiple still leaves room for re-rating as organic

growth re-accelerates and cash-sweep concerns prove manageable.

Exchanges

Exchanges remain one of the more attractive setups across our coverage as concerns