Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Galp Energia (GALP.LS)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Brent Price ($/bbl) 69 83 72 71

Total E&P Production (Kboe/d) 111 130 139 133

Refining Margin ($/bbl) 7 17 11 7

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Oil and gas prices RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Downstream margins (refining, trading) Further de-risking events in Namibia (+/-) 2.16 Crystallisation of exploration value Higher oil and gas realisation prices EPS

Gearing under control and dividend growth Production surprises to the upside (with (€) 1.73 2.23

sustainability Bacalhau ramp-up and low depletion in Tupi) 1.93

Industrial business supported by high refining

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE margins/trading DPS 0.70

Higher returns on green investments 0.61 0.71

(€)

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 0.66

40-50% Europe ex UK

Lower oil prices and refining margins 50-60% Latin America Acceleration of decline rates in the pre-salt 1,571 Net income

Green investments continue to yield subpar 1,166 1,623 (€, mn)

returns 1,403

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 4,381

EBITDA

MS ALPHA MODELS Inst. Owners, % Active 72.5% (€, mn) 3,251 4,473

4,042

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2x

2/5 3 Month

MOST Horizon HF Sector Net Exposure 3% Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

Quintile inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a