REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
Risk Reward Update
Research evidence excerpt
Risk Reward Update
UpdateM
Risk Reward – Galp Energia (GALP.LS)
KEY EARNINGS INPUTS
Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e
Brent Price ($/bbl) 69 83 72 71
Total E&P Production (Kboe/d) 111 130 139 133
Refining Margin ($/bbl) 7 17 11 7
INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS
Oil and gas prices RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e
Downstream margins (refining, trading) Further de-risking events in Namibia (+/-) 2.16 Crystallisation of exploration value Higher oil and gas realisation prices EPS
Gearing under control and dividend growth Production surprises to the upside (with (€) 1.73 2.23
sustainability Bacalhau ramp-up and low depletion in Tupi) 1.93
Industrial business supported by high refining
GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE margins/trading DPS 0.70
Higher returns on green investments 0.61 0.71
(€)
RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 0.66
40-50% Europe ex UK
Lower oil prices and refining margins 50-60% Latin America Acceleration of decline rates in the pre-salt 1,571 Net income
Green investments continue to yield subpar 1,166 1,623 (€, mn)
returns 1,403
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate
View explanation of regional hierarchies here
OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 4,381
EBITDA
MS ALPHA MODELS Inst. Owners, % Active 72.5% (€, mn) 3,251 4,473
4,042
HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2x
2/5 3 Month
MOST Horizon HF Sector Net Exposure 3% Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund
the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored exposures held with MSPB. Information may be
Quintile inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market
trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short
exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a
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