Lexicon Pharmaceuticals (LXRX.O): Enrollment Completion in Ph3 SONATA-HCM Sets Up Potentially Transformative Stock Catalyst in 1Q27

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Lexicon Pharmaceuticals (LXRX.O): Enrollment Completion in Ph3 SONATA-HCM Sets Up Potentially Transformative Stock Catalyst in 1Q27

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27 Jul 2026 20:05:34 ET │ 10 pages

Lexicon Pharmaceuticals (LXRX.O)

Enrollment Completion in Ph3 SONATA-HCM Sets Up Potentially

Transformative Stock Catalyst in 1Q27

CITI'S TAKE Buy / High Risk

Short-Term View: Upside, expires 06-AUG-26

The Ph3 SONATA-HCM trial completed enrollment on schedule, with

Price (27 Jul 26 16:00) US$2.23 topline still expected 1Q27. The study substantially exceeded the 500-

Target price US$3.10 patient target, boosting statistical power to detect a placebo-adjusted

KCCQ-CSS improvement in the 4–5 point range, consistent with the Expected share price return 39.0%

historically accepted clinical meaningfulness threshold. The study Expected dividend yield 0.0%

enrolled more nHCM than oHCM patients (though a meaningful number of Expected total return 39.0%

both, mgmt did not say exact split), as expected given the larger unmet Market Cap US$991M

need in nHCM relative to oHCM where CMIs are now available. While the

study is powered for the overall enrolled population, we see little

mechanistic basis for sota to exert a differential effect in obstructive vs

non-obstructive, as sota’s MoA addresses cardiac metabolism and Yigal Nochomovitz, Ph.D.AC

diastolic dysfunction broadly rather than directly enhancing cardiac +1-212-816-1441

pumping and thus obstruction like CMIs. We therefore caution against yigal.nochomovitz@citi.com

extrapolating the varied effect sizes seen with CMIs when comparing Caroline DePaul

obstructive and non-obstructive to how sota will perform in SONATA- +1-212-816-0211

HCM. caroline.depaul@citi.com

Joohwan Kim

Topline data are still expected in 1Q27.