Metal Matters: India gold imports to face continued headwinds in 3Q‘26

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Metal Matters: India gold imports to face continued headwinds in 3Q‘26

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27 Jul 2026 09:47:25 ET │ 9 pages

Metal Matters

India gold imports to face continued headwinds in 3Q’26

CITI'S TAKE

Viswanathrao Kintali AC

Our base case is for India gold imports to remain subdued through 3Q +44-20-7986-4982

despite it being a seasonal stocking quarter historically, as elevated scrap viswanathrao.kintali@citi.com

supply, cautious consumer sentiment, and discounted local prices

suppress the need for fresh imports. We stick with our low-conviction 0- Kenny Hu, CFA AC

3m point-price target of $4,500/oz (vs spot $4,085/oz), which assumes +65-6657-3873

Strait of Hormuz de-escalation and the Fed turning less hawkish, while kenny.x.hu@citi.com

there are plenty of short-term risks to lead to another leg lower in gold

prices, including a major re-escalation, AI-driven derisking, and continued Maximilian J Layton AC

Fed hawkishness. +44-20-7986-4556

max.layton@citi.com

India gold imports have been under pressure as Strait of Hormuz tensions and

Wenyu Yao AChigher oil prices have led to Rupee depreciation, higher duties, and weak

investment sentiment. Local gold prices are currently trading at an average discount +44-20-7986-4551

of ~1% (20dMA), signaling weak underlying demand and elevated selling pressure wenyu.yao@citi.com

(see Figure 1). Notably, 2Q’26 saw a rise in old jewelry sold for cash rather than AC Tom Mulqueenexchanged for new jewelry, marking a shift away from the typical trend.

+44-20-7986-4559

Meanwhile, buyers are on the sidelines as high oil prices reinforced expectations tom.mulqueen@citi.com

of further downside in local gold prices, and on anticipation that the government

could rationalize import duties to curb higher smuggling flows.