Bullish (BLSH.N): Weak Quarter, but Strong Hand; Maintain Buy/HR, Reset TP to $50

研报英文原文证据摘录

Bullish (BLSH.N): Weak Quarter, but Strong Hand; Maintain Buy/HR, Reset TP to $50

vely acknowledged that scale in the transfer agent and share registrar

business requires an incumbent relationship rather than organic buildout.

However, we think this structure carries some element of execution risk:

Computershare retains the client relationship and could slow the rollout, shift

priorities, or ultimately build competing capability in-house. Bullish, by contrast, is

acquiring Equiniti outright, giving it direct ownership of the issuer relationships,

the regulatory licenses, and the transfer agent ledger. In our view, this is a

structurally superior position, both in terms of economics and competitive

durability.

The timing debate is legitimate and warrants honest framing. The bear case does

not dispute the destination, but the timeline and the toll structure, and the analogy

to internet infrastructure in the late 1990s is not entirely unfair. DTCC, Nasdaq, and

the NYSE are building tokenization capabilities with institutional trust and client

networks that purpose-built entrants have spent years trying to replicate, and if

the adoption curve stretches, the window for incumbents to close the gap widens.

Regulatory uncertainty compounds the picture. CLARITY Act passage is likely at a

low probability with the August 7 Senate recess acting as a practical near-term

deadline, and without it, legal ambiguity around tokenized equities in the US likely

extends into 2027. The revenue contribution from Equiniti is also not in our current

model and will not be until the deal closes in January 2027, meaning near-term

estimates reflect only the standalone exchange business at a point when volumes

are under cyclical pressure.