The Point for North America

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The Point for North America

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Monday, 27 July 2026

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North America - Road Ahead 2H26

Global Commodities - Wildcards 2H’26: 1970s Oil Shock Rerun, and Other

Wildcards

Commodities markets are in an era where geopolitical, climate and technological

shocks routinely overwhelm traditional supply-demand analysis. Rather than only

what is most likely, investors need to consider what is plausible, and what markets

are least prepared for. The frequency of major commodities market disruptions

appears to be rising. Events once considered "once -a-decade" now seem to

emerge every year, or even every six months. Since the early 2000s, markets have

navigated the Global Financial Crisis, the Arab Spring, the US shale revolution,

OPEC's strategic policy shifts; since 2020, wildcards include COVID-19, the

Russia-Ukraine conflict, trade wars, gold-positive macro concerns, weather-

driven agricultural disruptions, and repeated Middle East conflicts. In Feb’26, we,

as part of GSMG Research, published Wildcards: Tail Risks in an Increasingly

Fragile World – soon after that, the US-Iran conflict wildcard came about. Here, we

look at nine potential commodities wildcards for 2H 2026 and beyond.

Eric G Lee | Maximilian J Layton | Anthony Yuen | Maggie Xueting Lin | Arkady Gevorkyan

Timeline showing notable wildcards and shocks impacting commodities, 2000-2026

US imposes US withdraws US-Iran war and

sanctions on Iran, from JCPOA, Iran closure of Strait

JCPOA nuclear sanctions of Hormuz

deal negotiated,

reimposed Venezuela coup Iran sanctions

lifted

US-Israel-Iran

OPEC strategy 12-day war

shifts to raising Russia-Ukraine

Iraq war oil output to war