Rede D’Or (RDOR3.SA): 2Q26 preview: expect flattish hospital profitability on milder volumes; reducing 2026/2027 earnings

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Rede D’Or (RDOR3.SA): 2Q26 preview: expect flattish hospital profitability on milder volumes; reducing 2026/2027 earnings

Equity Research

27 July 2026 | 6:47AM BRT

Rede D’Or (RDOR3.SA): 2Q26 preview: expect flattish hospital

profitability on milder volumes; reducing 2026/2027 earnings

We preview 2Q26 results and update our estimates for Rede D’Or to factor in more Gustavo Miele

+55(11)3371-0834 |

recent operational and macro trends. We forecast consolidated EBITDA of BRL gustavo.miele@gs.com

Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

2,717mn and net income of BRL 1,060mn for 2Q26 on a consolidated basis,

implying 12%/0% YoY growth. We expect a deceleration in the recurring growth of

the hospital business unit’s EBITDA to 9%, vs 17% 1Q26 YoY (reaching BRL 2,201mn

in 2Q26), driven by likely lower occupancy rates (corroborated by recent ANAHP

data), which we expect to contract by 1.5pp YoY and weigh on top-line growth, and

consequently on operational leverage, as we anticipate a virtually flat recurring

hospital EBITDA margin (25.5% or +0.2pp YoY when adjusting comp base by

non-recurring events). That said, we note that the mix of procedures is something to

monitor from a profitability standpoint, given the expected high volume of surgeries,

as was the case in 4Q25. For Sul America, we expect health & odonto MLR to worsen

by 2.5pp QoQ (while improving by 1.5pp YoY, reflecting the continued improvement

in mix driven by the higher penetration of more efficient products, despite a tough

comp base), explained by weaker seasonality in Q2.

We also update our RDOR model, cutting 2026/2027 recurring earnings by ~7%

(BRL 4.56bn /5.69bn) on a combination of 1) a more conservative margin forecast

for the hospital business and 2) an upward revision in base interest rates