Brazil tax risk meets a World Cup hangover; downgrade to EW

研报英文原文证据摘录

Brazil tax risk meets a World Cup hangover; downgrade to EW

Equity Research

European Consumer Staples

27 July 2026

Anheuser-Busch InBev

Brazil tax risk meets a World Cup

hangover; downgrade to EW

We downgrade ABI to EW. Brazil’s 2027 Sin Tax will hit one of ABI.BR/ABI BB EQUAL WEIGHT

its largest profit pools as beer vols mature and affordability from Overweight

European Consumer

tightens. With 2027 also lapping a World Cup supported 2026, Staples NEUTRAL

Unchanged

earnings visibility weakens while ABI’s premium valuation Price Target EUR 82.00

lowered -14% from EUR 95.00leaves limited room for disappointment. PT to €82.

Price (24-Jul-26) EUR 71.64

Potential Upside/Downside +14.5%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

19TH ANNUAL

Market Cap (EUR mn) 144658

Global Consumer Conference Shares Outstanding (mn) 2019.25

Free Float (%) 54.53 Boston, 8-10 September 2026

52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 1.8

Dividend Yield (%) 2.79 Register Now

Return on Equity TTM (%) 8.26

Current BVPS (EUR) 48.57

We downgrade ABI to EW. Our thesis rests on three factors: (1) Brazil's new Imposto Source: Bloomberg

Seletivo (Sin Tax), takes effect on 1 January 2027 and creates a structural pricing and

earnings headwind in one of ABI's largest profit pools; (2) ABI faces a difficult 2027 comp Price Performance Exchange-BRU

against a World Cup-supported 2026; and (3) ABI's relative valuation looks stretched, with 52 Week range EUR 74.68-48.87

limited visible catalysts to sustain its premium once these risks become more apparent.

We continue to see ABI as a best-in-class brewer, but believe the combination of tax risk,

weaker growth visibility and a premium valuation creates a less attractive risk-reward

profile.

Brazil tax risk: As discussed in our Brazil Alcohol - The End of Expansion Note, Brazil’s