UniCredit Group (CRDI.MI): Rebuilding Our Model for Commerzbank Consolidation

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UniCredit Group (CRDI.MI): Rebuilding Our Model for Commerzbank Consolidation

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27 Jul 2026 02:51:29 ET │ 14 pages

UniCredit Group (CRDI.MI)

Rebuilding Our Model for Commerzbank Consolidation

CITI'S TAKE

Buy We update our model post-2Q26 results and for the first time formally

include a consolidation of Commerzbank at end-2026 into our forecasts. Price (24 Jul 26 17:30) €80.43

We see a year-end CET1R of 13%, consistent with pro-forma guidance Target price €88.40↑

post-consolidation and after cancelling the FY25 buyback accrual, and from €84.00

believe an 80% payout on the combined earnings profile is feasible in Expected share price return 9.9%

2027–28 if management can deliver on the planned €33bn RWA reduction Expected dividend yield 4.7%

(which helps to offset the impact from integration costs). We incorporate

Expected total return 14.6% the latest guidance on synergies, with more pulled forward from 2030 to

Market Cap €121,285M 2028; however, we conservatively assume the €1.3bn cost synergies are

only delivered by end-2028, as opposed to FY28. Our target price US$137,986M

increases to €88.4, though it would have risen to something similar on our

standalone upgrades, so we currently attribute little additional value to

the Commerzbank transaction. We reiterate our Buy rating.

Andrew Coombs, CFAAC

+44-20-7986-4053

Standalone Forecasts Increase — Our standalone EPS forecasts increase by ~2– andrew.coombs@citi.com

3% post-2Q26 results, mainly on faster Italian loan and fee growth than anticipated,

Borja Ramirez Segurawhich is only partly offset by weaker trading income (even after excluding the one-

off drag from the hedge this quarter). For our initial results reaction, see Small Beat, +44-20-7508-0206

FY26 Targets Revised Higher, More Commerzbank Detail.