UniCredit Group (CRDI.MI): Thoughts Post 2Q Call - Commerzbank Execution Risk Continues To Dominate The Debate

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UniCredit Group (CRDI.MI): Thoughts Post 2Q Call - Commerzbank Execution Risk Continues To Dominate The Debate

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23 Jul 2026 06:46:40 ET │ 12 pages

UniCredit Group (CRDI.MI)

Thoughts Post 2Q Call - Commerzbank Execution Risk Continues To

Dominate The Debate

CITI'S TAKE Buy

Price (22 Jul 26 17:30) €83.21 UniCredit shares are down 3% despite a solid set of results; see '2Q26

Target price €84.00 Small Beat, FY26 Targets Revised Higher, More Commerzbank Detail'. We

attribute this to the confirmed cancellation of the FY25 buyback accrual Expected share price return 0.9%

and concerns on Commerzbank M&A execution risk, which dominated the Expected dividend yield 4.5%

conference call and detracts from what is otherwise another impressive Expected total return 5.5%

quarter of organic growth. Management stressed that they see the RoIC Market Cap €125,477M

on Comerzbank at 15% overall, which is above the equivalent return on a US$143,188M

buyback and that they wish to make sure they integrate Commerzbank

successfully, focusing on long-term value creation over short-term results

and distributions. Nonetheless the day-1 capital impact now seems to be

slightly larger as it is assumed to consolidate in 4Q26 vs mid-2027 Andrew Coombs, CFAAC

previously and the pull-forward of the synergy targets seems highly +44-20-7986-4053

ambitious within the timeframe in our opinion. andrew.coombs@citi.com

Canberk Benning

Commerzbank Stake, New EGM & Next Steps - Post the tender offer UniCredit has +44-20-7986-1046

a 44.4% stake, rising to 46.3% excluding treasury shares. Adding the equity-settled canberk.benning@citi.com

TRS increases this further to 47.6%/49.7% (with cash TRS another 11.5%/12.0%, Guru Prasad Chowdhary

albeit potentially including some double-count with pledges shares).