2Q26 preview; navigating near-term headwinds with an eye on medium-term recovery

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q26 preview; navigating near-term headwinds with an eye on medium-term recovery

Equity Research

27 July 2026 | 7:34AM GST

TURKIYE BANKS

2Q26 preview; navigating near-term headwinds with an eye on

medium-term recovery

Near-term earnings pressure and downside risk to guidance Ashwath P T, CFA

+971(4)376-3439 | ashwath.pt@gs.com

We forecast a challenging 2Q26 for Turkish banks, with Net Income declining by an Goldman Sachs International

average c.30% qoq. This contraction is driven by tighter macro-prudential Kazim Andac

regulations and the suspension of the weekly repo rate, which has pushed funding +971(4)214-9958kazim.andac@gs.com|

costs to 40% (from 37%), leading to NIM compression. Additionally, we see higher Goldman Sachs International

Gokul Vinayak Lrates pressuring asset quality, resulting in rising credit costs and increased NPL +1(332)245-7976 | gokul.l@gs.com

inflows from SME & retail and/or lower collections. Consequently, we see downside Goldman Sachs India SPL

risk to banks’ FY26 ROE guidance, particularly for Isbank (IS), given its high

asset-liability duration gap, while Garanti’s ROE (GAR) looks relatively more resilient.

Valuation disconnect and the 2027 recovery flywheel

We believe the market has partially priced in these headwinds, though unevenly. IS &

Yapi Kredi (YKB) trade at a discount to peers, though we note that only IS & GAR

trade at a discount to history. Consequently, we continue to see valuation support for

IS & GAR despite guidance downgrade risk. Looking into 2027, our outlook remains

constructive. As inflationary pressures subside and monetary easing resumes, we

expect a positive flywheel effect: rapid NIM expansion, positive real ROEs, and book

value accretion in US$ terms driving a sector-wide re-rating.