Global Asset Allocation: House Views July 2026 – From Penalty Kicks to Macro Risks

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Global Asset Allocation: House Views July 2026 – From Penalty Kicks to Macro Risks

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24 Jul 2026 04:40:34 ET │ 38 pages

Global Asset Allocation

House Views July 2026 – From Penalty Kicks to Macro Risks

CITI'S TAKE

Dirk Willer AC

Since our last asset allocation, the Middle East conflict has escalated again, +1-212-723-1016

with oil recovering much of the June losses. Rates have taken their cues from dirk.willer@citi.com

oil, while equities and FX have remained more stable so far. We remain

overweight equities, as we still expect an eventual conflict resolution. But Adam Pickett AC

the size is reduced, as we took profit on our Emerging Asia long in early July. +44-20-7500-5777

We remain long the US, being less sensitive to oil, but note that our adam.pickett@citi.com

“Generals” indicator is not far from triggering, which would be equity

negative. In duration, we stay neutral, underweight the US, now against Alex Saunders AC

Bunds (replacing Gilts), given that US duration is impacted both by oil and +1-212-723-1058

the AI boom. Bunds are a better overweight given higher oil sensitivity of alexander.saunders@citi.com

Gilts, and less fiscal risks. We remain underweight credit as an equity hedge,

and long base-metals. Our EUReka model is flat USD. Giammarco Miani AC

+44-20-7986-6316

In equities, we stay overweight — We favor the US as a less oil sensitive market. We giammarco.miani@citi.com

cut our EM Asia overweight in early July given poor technicals and retail positioning. AC Alice Zheng

While we do not think that the AI story is over yet, we would note that our risk

+1-212-816-0382management tool, which we employ during bubbles, the “Generals”, is not far from

triggering, which would be a negative sign. alice.zheng@citi.com