Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS.O): 2Q26 Review - Overall Good Quarter, Just Updated Outlook Already Priced In

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Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS.O): 2Q26 Review - Overall Good Quarter, Just Updated Outlook Already Priced In

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24 Jul 2026 05:00:00 ET │ 15 pages

Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS.O)

2Q26 Review - Overall Good Quarter, Just Updated Outlook Already

Priced In

CITI'S TAKE Neutral

Price (23 Jul 26 16:00) US$177.95 2Q results were solid, with strong core top-line performance (~22c beat vs

Target price US$182.00↑ cons) and hard to say how core expenses shook out given comparison still

appears complicated by last quarter's reclassification of the comp and from US$172.00

employee benefits lines. While mgmt guided up full-year NII to 9-10% and Expected share price return 2.3%

total revenue up 9-10% with ~400bps of oplev, NTRS ultimately Expected dividend yield 2.0%

underperformed on earnings day (down ~3.5% vs BKX up ~0.26%), as Expected total return 4.3%

updated guidance felt largely in-line with prior expectations. We had Market Cap US$32,557M

previously assumed $525 mil Visa gain fell to the bottom-line, so our

lower '26 estimates are largely explained by one-time item offsets,

including the securities reposition and software disposition in 2Q (~86c

headwind to our prior estimates). We raise PT to $182 from $172 on lower Benjamin GerlingerAC

assumed cost-of-equity. +1-212-816-3538

benjamin.gerlinger@citi.com

Estimate Changes — Our 2026E EPS decreases 80c to $13.10 (vs. FactSet Mikhail Mrotchek

consensus of $11.40), 2027E EPS decreases 5c to $12.90 (vs. FactSet consensus of +1-212-816-2345

$12.56), and 2028E EPS increases 25c to $13.90. See Figure 1 for more detail on misha.mrotchek@citi.com

estimate revisions.

Kaili Wang, CFA

+1-716-730-7408

kaili.wang@citi.com

EPS (US$) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY FC Cons VA Cons

2025A 1.95A 2.18A 2.34A 2.48A 6.54A 9.00A 9.00A