Australia & NZ Weekly Economic Preview/Review: Week commencing 27 July 2026

研报英文原文证据摘录

Australia & NZ Weekly Economic Preview/Review: Week commencing 27 July 2026

Economics Research

24 July 2026 | 2:19PM AEST

Australia & NZ Weekly Economic Preview/Review: Week commencing 27

July 2026

Key data over the past week: Andrew Boak, CFA

+61(2)9321-8576 |

In Australia: andrew.boak@gs.com

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

n Analyst: Launching Probabilistic Forecasts for Quarterly Trimmed Mean Inflation: Will Maher

+61(2)9320-1013 | will.maher@gs.com

We launch probabilistic forecasts for quarterly trimmed mean inflation, derived Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

using Monte Carlo simulations based on historical forecast errors. Looking ahead Oscar To

+61(2)9320-1367 | oscar.to@gs.com

to the 2Q2026 CPI report, our probability-weighted forecast is 0.92%qoq, Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

suggesting risks lie to the downside of our 0.95%qoq modal forecast.

n Labour Force: The unemployment rate increased 6bp to 4.43% in June, in line

with expectations, alongside much larger-than-expected increases in both

employment and the participation rate.

In New Zealand:

n CPI 2Q2026: Headline CPI increased 1.5%qoq in 2Q2026, with the

year-over-year rate accelerating 100bp to 4.1%yoy. Compositionally, the

acceleration in inflation was driven by tradables prices alongside higher oil prices,

while non-tradables inflation was little changed. Underlying inflation generally

picked up. We continue to expect the RBNZ to hike the policy rate in September

but now expect a final 25bp hike at December’s meeting to 3.00%.

Key focus in the week ahead:

Australia: Tues: Speech by RBA Governor Bullock (1:05pm AEST); Wed: CPI; Thurs:

Building Approvals, Trade Prices, Fireside Chat with RBA Assistant Governor

(Economic) Hunter (8:40am AEST); Fri: PPI, Private Sector Credit.