Kuehne+Nagel: Cost out with AI, but cui bono? Remain Market-Perform, TP CHF 200

研报英文原文证据摘录

Kuehne+Nagel: Cost out with AI, but cui bono? Remain Market-Perform, TP CHF 200

rent BERN TP

determines gross profits -- and the earnings pool.

CHANGES TO TARGET PRICE

• Cost reduction program being executed well. At Q3 2025, Kuehne+Nagel announced its Raised to CHF 200 based on a 21.2x multiple

latest cost reduction program, targeting CHF200m savings to be realized by the end of 2026.

Management appears to be achieving the combination of cost out without weighing on

commercial performance, supporting margin growth in Q1 and with more to come as savings PRINCIPAL CATALYSTS

ramp up through the year. More of this, and it may not be long before we see a combined Air & • Turnaround in execution. Kuehne+Nagel has been

Sea conversion ratio trending into the 30%s. While we initially worried that the cost reductions struggling vs peers on organic growth and conversion margins.

were a reaction to poor earnings and pressure to do something, rather than borne of genuine Lasting signs of improvement would suggest earnings past the

optimization, these apper to be a success. trough and could prompt a re-rating.

• Delivering on new targets? Kuehne+Nagel refreshed targets at its March 2025 CMD, after • Market share gains from customer churn following the

falling well short of the targets from 2023. While we sympathize with weak volumes having DSV–DB Schenker merger.

persisted for far longer than thought, unit economics have also missed. Volume growth at 1.5x

GDP has echoes of the late 2010s, with volume growth at 2x the market but adjusted to eschew • Freight market rebound. Global logistics volumes have been

lower-margin freight. The targeted 35% conversion ratio in air and sea is where we were in below historic trends sincelate 2022. A return towards the