European Logistics: Two guidance upgrades already - forwarders to benefit too (Q2 2026 preview)

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European Logistics: Two guidance upgrades already - forwarders to benefit too (Q2 2026 preview)

9 July 2026

European Logistics

European Logistics: Two guidance upgrades already - forwarders

to benefit too (Q2 2026 preview)

Already half of our European Logistics coverage has increased guidance as we head into Alex Irving, CFA

+44 20 7676 7044 Q2 reporting. First Maersk on strong demand and freight rates, then DHL on Express

alex.irving@bernsteinsg.com weight growth and tight capacity, not see higher earnings in 2026. The two forwarders in

our coverage are yet to report. Here, we see the outlook as positive. Additional logistical

Antoine Madre complexity arising from tight airfreight capacity in the Gulf should support unit gross profits

+33 1 58 98 74 52

antoine.madre@bernsteinsg.com and conversion margins — as hinted at by DHL’s improving EBIT in its own forwarding

division. We continue to prefer DSV within the European logistics sector, seeing the company

as undervalued for its earnings improvement potential. The most important proof point would

be a step up in Air & Sea margins. We see this as likely at Q2: a potential catalyst to reignite

investor interest in the shares.

Guidance upgrades (I): Maersk. Maersk increased its 2026 guidance on 30 June. It now

sees underlying EBIT of $2bn-$4bn, up from a prior range of -$1.5bn to $1bn. This follows

strong demand, leading to strong freight rates, coupled with the high operating leverage

inherent to container shipping. Part of this is likely a pull-forward of demand into Q2, but

Maersk also raised its outlook for container trade for the year to 4% volume growth (from

2-4%).

Guidance upgrades (II): DHL. DHL raised its guidance on July 7, with a ~€300m beat on