Atlassian Corporation Ltd (TEAM.O): FQ4Q26E Preview: Stable Fundamentals are Healthier Than What Stock‘s Pricing In

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Atlassian Corporation Ltd (TEAM.O): FQ4Q26E Preview: Stable Fundamentals are Healthier Than What Stock‘s Pricing In

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24 Jul 2026 01:56:10 ET │ 23 pages

Atlassian Corporation Ltd (TEAM.O)

F4Q26E Preview: Stable Fundamentals are Healthier Than What

Stock’s Pricing In

CITI'S TAKE

Shares down >50% YTD, with sentiment unjustifiably bearish against our Buy

resilient post-TEAM conference/intra-Q checks, combined with general

investor apathy - “model too-confusing”, “frontier labs a structural overhang” Short-Term View: Upside

– presents an attractive risk/reward into and through results (8/6). Our steady- Price (23 Jul 26 16:00) US$80.15

stream of evidence corroborates TEAM is not a structural AI loser and is not Target price US$110.00being crowded-out, and where model sensitivity presents a plausible path for

near-term acceleration/upside + NTM beat-and-raise set-up even Expected share price return 37.2%

considering likely conservatism from new CFO Chuong. Acknowledging revs Expected dividend yield 0.0%

guide noise (DC segment variability, rev-rec), and admittedly aggressive FY27E Expected total return 37.2%Street OPMs (29% vs. CitiE 26%), we generally think under-the-hood

mechanics like NRR-accretive DC migrations and stable seat-expansions Market Cap US$20,339M

remain undermined/misunderstood. Alongside new pricing models like Flex

and a seasoning enterprise-centric GTM motion, and against a strengthening

AI story/roadmap garnering both customer and partner credibility, shares look

mispriced to us at 3x EV/S, 10x EV/FCF, 12x P/E’27E; reaffirm Buy $110PT. Price Performance

(RIC: TEAM.O, BB: TEAM US)

Checks have netted out balanced but virtually no signs of structural/competitive

erosion is what is most encouraging — Partners are seeing accelerating business