Roche (ROPC.S) Moving to an execution story for 2H‘26; valuation reflects outlook

研报英文原文证据摘录

Roche (ROPC.S) Moving to an execution story for 2H‘26; valuation reflects outlook

Goldman Sachs Roche (ROPC.S)

n With a light catalyst path in 2H26, giredestrant, divarasib, and BTK degrader

bexobrutideg were the focus on the call. With respect to giredestrant,

management anticipates initial uptake will be driven by patients who are ineligible

for, intolerant to, or have discontinued CDK4/6 inhibitors, believing these utilities will

not in conflict with the potential FDA label. They anticipate gradual sales growth,

driven by the drug’s long treatment duration. For divarasib, management indicated a

potential update to peak sales estimates at the upcoming Pharma Day. On BTK

degrader bexobrutideg, management highlighted its best-in-class potential, citing

stronger efficacy, improved safety, and relatively low risk due to its validated

mechanism of action. For the rest of FY26, we expect investor focus on: 1) Phase 2

readout for CT-996; and 2) IMAGINATION testing sefaxersen in IgAN, with primary

completion in Aug.

n We make modest changes to our model and target price. Following the results, we

make only modest changes to our model increasing estimates by c.1% or less across

all years, leading to a modest increase in our 12m target price to CHF349 per share

(from CHF348), which, following the strong post-2Q’25 performance is in line with

current levels.

Exhibit 1: Summary of Roche guidance on product sales

Prior at 2Q26

CHF4bn tail sales primarily composed of Phesgo,

HER2 franchise Reiterated

with c. CHF1bn for Kadcyla

No biosimilar before 2028 for US or before 2027

Perjeta Reiterated

for EU

Tecentriq Low single digit growth in 2026 Reiterated

Hemlibra Low single digit growth in 2026 Mid single digit