EUROPE: BUILDING MATERIALS US residential roofing: Supply/demand to loosen over coming years, remain below consensus for SGO

研报英文原文证据摘录

EUROPE: BUILDING MATERIALS US residential roofing: Supply/demand to loosen over coming years, remain below consensus for SGO

Equity Research

23 July 2026 | 7:18PM BST

EUROPE: BUILDING MATERIALS

US residential roofing: Supply/demand to loosen over coming years,

remain below consensus for SGO

We introduce a supply/demand model for US residential roofing shingles (roofing Ben Rada Martin

+44(20)7051-0800 |

material used for 80% of US single-family housing), which suggests industry supply is ben.radamartin@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

likely to outpace demand over the coming years. We sit below consensus

Natasha Phillipsexpectations for Saint Gobain’s Americas regional margins on this view (-4%/-3% on +44(20)7051-4705 |

Americas 2026/2027 EBIT), expecting less operating leverage in 2H as volume trends natasha.phillips@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

improve on weaker comps, and see spot price/cost (Roofing PPI vs. oil) skewing to Patrick Creuset

the downside. +33(1)4212-1380patrick.creuset@gs.com|

Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris

US residential roofing supply/demand tightness is fading: We estimate net Branch

capacity growth of >10% across 2024-29, equivalent to the capacity added during

the previous two decades combined, whereas for demand we see a broadly flat

2024-29 outlook. This is driven by an -11% decline in 2025 (-8% of which tied to

weather demand), followed by a recovery via +11% cumulative growth across the

rest of the period (2025-29 +3% CAGR p.a.). This return to growth can be seen in

2Q’26 ARMA data (flat), which improved against a -9% decline in 1Q’26. In the

medium term, our supply/demand indicators remain below 2023-25 levels, pointing

to a risk of flat to declining margins, even under stronger demand scenarios.