Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

lity data from the options market as of 23

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either Disruption: Positive

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here Secular Growth: Positive

Technology Diffusion: Positive

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

BULL CASE 3,660p BASE CASE 2,990p BEAR CASE 1,890p

Firing on all growth cylinders Solid growth - c. 7% FY25-28 org. sales Returning to a slower growth path

CAGR

Underlying group 2025-28 revenue CAGR RELX's growth slows in more competitive

accelerates to 8% pa, with Risk at high Underlying group organic 2025-28 revenue market; the mid-term u/l revenue CAGR

single-digit growth, and Legal at double- growth sustains at c. 7% on average, with slows towards 4.5%. Risk still outgrows the

digits (on the back of GenAI products). STM Risk at 8% across the period, Legal at c. 9% group, but closer to a mid-single-digit %

sustains mid-single-digit % growth within underlying (backed by Lexis+ with Protege), rate, and with STM at a mid/low-single-digit

the overall group mix. Adjusted operating Exhibitions runs at c. 6-7% rate, and STM at %. Legal returns to mid single-digit growth

profit sustains at a high single-digit % 5%. The group continues to make solid as Lexis+ AI traction fades. Group adj. EBIT

growth rate through the mid-term. Group operational progress across its portfolio. margins reduce to low-30s% in terminal

adj. operating profit margin expands from Group adjusted operating profit (ex-JVs) state as operating leverage levers fade. We

33% in 2023 to c. 36% by 2028 and >40% margin expands from c. 33% in 2023 to c. apply lower 2% terminal growth. Our bear

long-term.