NielsenIQ (NIQ.N): Beats Across the Board; Raise TP to $16, Maintain Neutral/HR

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11 Aug 2026 06:55:19 ET │ 21 pages

NielsenIQ (NIQ.N)

Beats Across the Board; Raise TP to $16, Maintain Neutral/HR

CITI'S TAKE

NIQ delivered another strong quarter, beating Citi estimates and consensus

across most key metrics and raising full year guidance. The results mark the

tenth consecutive quarter of mid-single-digit OCC growth and a

meaningful FCF inflection, two milestones that strengthen the bull case

considerably. AI-native solutions grew 34% YoY with 51% of top 100 clients

now engaged, and the Wave 2 product launch at C360 adds a credible

longer-term monetization layer. We raise our price target to $16.00 from

$10.50 reflecting higher estimates and a better-than-expected FCF

trajectory. That said, we remain Neutral/HR. Investors wanting to get ahead

of the FCF inflection still face a potentially static-money setup near term

given multiple compression risk, while OCC durability over the next 3-4

quarters has yet to be established at scale. We see the more compelling

entry point emerging after 1-2 additional quarters of execution, potentially

coinciding with an initial 2027 outlook.

2Q Recap — 2Q'26 revenue of $1,124M (+8.0% YoY, +5.8% OCC) beat estimates on

broad-based regional strength. Adj. EBITDA of $262M (+21.9% YoY) at a 23.3%

margin (+270 bps YoY) and Adj. EPS of $0.27 both materially exceeded guidance and

consensus. Levered FCF inflected to $74.1M (+$137M YoY) and net leverage declined

to 3.1x. FY'26 guidance raised across all metrics with FCF guided to $245M-$255M.

n

Neutral / High Risk

Price (10 Aug 26 22:14)

US$13.78

Target price

US$16.00↑

from US$10.50

Expected share price return

16.1%

Expected dividend yield

0.0%

Expected total return

16.1%

Market Cap

US$4,064M

Price Performance

(RIC: NIQ.N, BB: NIQ US)

Raise Ests and TP increased to $16 — We raise our price target to $16.00 from

$10.50, based on a 6.5x-8.5x Adj. EBITDA multiple range applied to our FY'27

estimate of $1,129M, up from a prior 5.5x-7.5x range. The expansion reflects NIQ's

demonstrated execution against IPO commitments, a ten-quarter OCC growth

track record, and an accelerating FCF profile that reduces the binary risk we

previously ascribed to the story.…