United Spirits (UNSP.BO): Karnataka Benefits Offset Maharashtra Headwinds

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United Spirits (UNSP.BO): Karnataka Benefits Offset Maharashtra Headwinds

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23 Jul 2026 11:57:41 ET │ 14 pages

United Spirits (UNSP.BO)

Karnataka Benefits Offset Maharashtra Headwinds

CITI'S TAKE

United Spirits 1QFY27 net revenue grew 6%. Prestige & Above NSV grew

10.1% despite continued Maharashtra headwind; segment volumes

declined 1.3%. However, excluding the impact in Maharashtra, P&A volumes Rating Suspended

/NSV grew 6.4% / 14.8%. Karnataka policy changes aided premiumisation, Price (23 Jul 26 15:30) Rs1,418.70

while mgmt. highlighted stronger momentum building in the rest of India.

Target price -Gross margin at 46.1% expanded 55bps YoY (-120bps QoQ) as impact from

West Asia disruption (Rs300mn inflation in 1Q) was offset by improved mix. from -

Operating profit though was impacted by higher A&P spends (investments Expected share price return -

behind McDowell’s No1 relaunch, IPL and FIFA World Cup campaigns);

Expected dividend yield -EBITDA (comparable) declined 5%. Overall, mgmt. expects volume growth

to accelerate in 2HFY27 as Maharashtra headwinds annualize, Karnataka Expected total return -

premiumization benefits continue to build, and UK-FTA related gains start Market Cap Rs1,031,893M

flowing through from October onwards. Mgmt. reiterated its medium-term

double-digit P&A growth framework (5-6% volume + 6-7% price/mix). We US$10,685M

raise our FY27-29E earnings estimates by 1-2%.

1QFY27 results — Net revenue (net of excise) at Rs27.0bn grew 6% YoY – vs. Citi/cons

ests of Rs26.8bn/Rs27.0bn. EBITDA at Rs4.3bn declined 5% YoY (comparable basis) Price Performance

– vs. Citi/consensus estimates of Rs4.2bn/Rs4.5bn; EBITDA margin came in at (RIC: UNSP.BO, BB: UNITDSPR IN)

16.0% (Citi/consensus estimates of 15.8%/16.8%). Recurring PAT at Rs3.2bn