US Application Software: Expecting Diverging Trends Across 2Q Front Office Software Earnings

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US Application Software: Expecting Diverging Trends Across 2Q Front Office Software Earnings

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23 Jul 2026 07:34:28 ET │ 34 pages

US Application Software

Expecting Diverging Trends Across 2Q Front Office Software Earnings

CITI'S TAKE

Tyler Radke AC

We head into the June Q front office earnings expecting strong +1-415-951-1660

outperformance for FIG and solid results from SHOP/KVYO, with caution on tyler.radke@citi.com

HUBS. We see a bifurcated software budgetary environment, favoring B2C/

e-commerce, and brand modernization projects. This is supported by our Andrew Girard, CFA

end of-Q channel checks, takeaways from our time at the 2026 Cannes andrew.girard@citi.com

Lions festival along with our CIO survey. We see more risk to HUBS on

execution as it undergoes significant GTM changes. For SHOP, we expect Peter Griffith

strong 2Q results and 3Q guidance above the Street even as it faces tougher peter.griffith@citi.com

GMV and sales comps to last year. Klaviyo is also likely to show a modest Yitchuin Wongbeat and raise in 2Q. There’s potential for FIG to see an outsized beat and

raise amid a full quarter of AI monetization, while HUBS could beat 2Q yitchuin.wong@citi.com

guidance slightly and elect not to raise FY26 expectations.

Figma: Outperformance Likely Amid AI Monetization — Figma appears primed for

strong 2Q outperformance with a full quarter of AI monetization under its belt. Our

checks from our initiation through Config suggest customers are rapidly upgrading

to Full Seat, which supports our revenue growth being 7/9pts above Street in

2Q/FY26. We see likelihood for positive revisions by management as AI

monetization visibility improves. Our TP moves to $35 (7x FY28 EV/S, 53.7x EV/FCF).

HubSpot: Caution Amid Shifting GTM Strategy — HubSpot’s go-to-market