TBC Bank Group (TBCG.L): Model Update

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TBC Bank Group (TBCG.L): Model Update

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23 Jul 2026 07:57:03 ET │ 11 pages

TBC Bank Group (TBCG.L)

Model Update

CITI'S TAKE

Buy We revise our earnings estimates cutting our EPS forecasts by 6% this year

and by 2-3% p.a. over the rest of our forecast horizon driven by a Price (22 Jul 26 16:30) £48.50

reductions forecast fees and, this year, by lower forecast net interest Target price £57.00

income (NII). These changes are mainly driven by a reduction in the Expected share price return 17.5%

forecast earnings contribution of the Uzbek business given the headwind Expected dividend yield 6.5%

of regulatory requirements requiring diversification of the loan book, but Expected total return 24.0%

also by a more cautious view on Georgian fee growth following weak

Market Cap £2,703M growth in 1Q from elevated card incentive expense from the bank’s push to

US$3,615M grow its debit card franchise. Despite the downward earnings revision the

relatively small change to our earnings estimates in the outer years of our

forecast horizon and a rolling forward of the basis of our valuation lead us

to reiterate our £57 target price and our Buy rating on the share. Simon NellisAC

+44-20-7986-4012

1Q26 preview – TBC Bank reports 1Q26 financial results on 6 August. We expect the simon.nellis@citi.com

Group to report a net profit attributable to shareholders of GEL370m or +3% higher

than the GEL360m booked in 1Q26. We expect the net profit of the Uzbek business

in 2Q26 to amount to GEL20m, or down slightly from the GEL20.7m reported in

1Q26 driven by +2% qoq growth in NII, flattish loan growth qoq, +10% qoq growth in

fees, stable costs qoq and similar impairment qoq. We expect a slightly better

financial result of the rest of the business (e.g. Georgia & other) of GEL350m vs.