US Leisure: RVs – Lowering Estimates on Rudderless Industry Trends

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US Leisure: RVs – Lowering Estimates on Rudderless Industry Trends

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23 Jul 2026 08:09:39 ET │ 29 pages

US Leisure

RVs – Lowering Estimates on Rudderless Industry Trends

CITI'S TAKE

Leisure

RV industry trends have remained consistently challenged through 1H26

and we see little on the horizon to drive an inflection for the industry. As such James Hardiman AC

we are reducing our industry expectations slightly for the balance of CY26 +1-212-816-4035

and more meaningfully for CY27. Until we see tangible signs of demand james.hardiman@citi.com

improvement, we are assuming trends remain largely the same (on a 2-year

basis) moving forward. Our FY27 estimates are significantly beneath the Sean Wagner

Street for (Neutral rated) THO and WGO, where expectations are +1-212-519-8834

exceedingly low, but estimates are likely going lower, whereas we are now sean.wagner@citi.com

modestly beneath the Street for (Buy rated) Camping World due to used

segment offsets and a more beneficial (later) calendar.

RV retail registrations for the month of May were down 16% y/y. Following a 15%

decline in April, this marks five consecutive months of double-digit y/y declines

to start 2026. On a two-year average basis the 9% decline in May was slightly worse

than the -8% in April.

Our industry retail assumptions are down for both CY26 (from -13% to -16%) and

CY27 (from +4% to +1%). At that time of their most recent earnings report in June,

THO stated that it now expects a mid-teens retail decline (~300K units) in North

America versus the previous expectation of a low- to mid-single-digit retail decline

(330-340K units). Similarly, WGO anticipates total North American RV wholesale

shipments in the range of 290-310K for CY26, down vs. the previous 330K.