Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR.O): Expect Commercial Reacceleration; Raising Estimates

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Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR.O): Expect Commercial Reacceleration; Raising Estimates

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23 Jul 2026 06:24:36 ET │ 17 pages

Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR.O)

Expect Commercial Reacceleration; Raising Estimates

CITI'S TAKE

We expect US Commercial to rebound after an unexpected deceleration in

Q1, driven by improved resource prioritization and AIP proliferation across

new industries and geographies. PLTR’s post-Q underperformance (-8% vs Buy / High Risk

IGV +6%) makes the risk/reward more attractive. Intra-Q checks were Price (22 Jul 26 16:00) US$124.57

positive across both commercial and federal, alongside encouraging

feedback from CFO Glazer, which gives us more confidence in USC RDV QoQ Target price US$200.00↓

net adds rebounding to the $800M+ seen in 2H25, driving further upward from US$225.00

revisions into FY27. We reiterate Buy HR Rating and raise our above street Expected share priceestimates further but cut our TP to $200 (~29xEV/Sales: ~52xEV/FCF on 60.6%

FY28 #s) on multiple compression. return

Expected dividend yield 0.0%

Intra-Q Checks Leans Positive — Our intra-Q checks with partners and Expected total return 60.6%management were largely positive, reflecting continued momentum across GSI and

ISV partners, including Databricks, AWS Summit and Cannes. Expanding customer Market Cap US$298,633M

use cases and geographies continue to underscore PLTR’s products and GTM

differentiation, which is resonating with enterprise C-suites. In our meeting with

CFO Glazer, we discussed notable customer wins from AIPCon 10, particularly in the

Legal and neoclouds verticals. International commercial momentum remains Price Performance

strong, highlighted by a large insurance win in Mexico and deepening relationship (RIC: PLTR.O, BB: PLTR US)

with NVDA in Sovereign.