International Business Machines Corp. (IBM): Ticks down guidance on mainframe pushouts; execution needs to improve for the stock to work

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International Business Machines Corp. (IBM): Ticks down guidance on mainframe pushouts; execution needs to improve for the stock to work

Equity Research

22 July 2026 | 10:26PM EDT

International Business Machines Corp. (IBM): Ticks down guidance on

mainframe pushouts; execution needs to improve for the stock to work

Key stock takeaways: We expect the stock to be range bound following IBM’s James Schneider, Ph.D.

+1(212)357-2929 |

lowered 2026 guidance, as the magnitude of the guidance cut is likely somewhat less jim.schneider@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

severe than expected, in light of the stock’s steep underperformance (down 29%

Luya You

after the negative pre-announcement on July 14). We believe IBM’s reduced outlook +1(212)902-5297 | luya.you@gs.com

reflects the ongoing client demand re-prioritization toward near-term server and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Anmol Makkarhardware purchases amid rising memory and component prices, which is weighing +1(212)357-1366 |

on both mainframe hardware and Transaction Processing demand. We were anmol.makkar@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC

somewhat encouraged by management’s commentary on the partial recovery in deal Khalil Fenina

signings which pushed out of 2Q, and IBM’s efficiency actions should mitigate +1(212)357-6392 | khalil.fenina@gs.com

near-term downside to EPS and cash flow estimates. However, we believe the Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

company’s lower-quality business mix in 2026 (stronger hardware and weaker

software) and weak near-term sales execution is likely to weigh on the stock’s

multiple until management can restore investor confidence in IBM’s software growth

trajectory and overall financial execution. We are Buy rated on IBM based on our

view that the company remains on track to deliver improving software revenue