Steady fundamentals, with support from benign cats and markets

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Steady fundamentals, with support from benign cats and markets

Equity Research

23 July 2026

European Insurance

Steady fundamentals, with

support from benign cats and

European Insurancemarkets

NEUTRAL

We expect steady underlying operating trends, though Unchanged

relatively benign large losses and positive MTM should European Insurance Claudia Gaspari

provide a tailwind to headline earnings. Capital should +44 (0)20 3134 6039

continue to edge higher, increasing market focus on the claudia.gaspari@barclays.comBarclays, UK

outlook for capital return. Ivan Bokhmat

+44 (0)20 7773 0417

Benign losses and supportive markets provide upside to earnings. Headline P&C margins ivan.bokhmat@barclays.com

Barclays, UKshould benefit from a relatively benign loss environment, in reinsurance in particular, with large

losses estimated at 40-50% of historical levels. However, we expect a more subdued underlying Alessia Magni, CFA

development as P&C prices continue to moderate across the spectrum. Top-line growth will +44 (0)20 3555 7393

remain a key lead indicator and we expect little in the way of positive surprises. Meanwhile in alessia.magni@barclays.com

Barclays, UKLife, underlying trends should remain resilient, supported by healthy flows and CSM growth.

Finally, we expect solvency ratios to edge higher still, remaining in focus as the market looks Domenico Turco

through to the upcoming benefits from Solvency 2 review. We expect increasing demands from +44 (0)20 7773 3505

investors to put this solvency strength to work in shareholder-friendly ways, whether capital domenico.turco@barclays.com

Barclays, UKreturns, organic or inorganic growth or balance sheet optimisation.

Positioning increased across financials in Q2; Banks still the favourite. Positioning has