F3Q26 Earnings Preview – The Market Has Pre-Priced in a Solid June Q/Sept Guide

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F3Q26 Earnings Preview – The Market Has Pre-Priced in a Solid June Q/Sept Guide

IdeaMExhibit 2: Our 57.5M Jun Q shipments are in line with build-implied shipments of

57.5M but are ~4M above consensus, while our Sept Q iPhone shipment

estimates of 58.5M are now largely aligned to what are implied by builds, 1.2M

below consensus

MSe iPhone Builds vs. MSe iPhone Shipments (with Consensus)

MSe iPhone Builds MSe iPhone Shipments Consensus iPhone Shipments Implied iPhone Shipments

(Based on Builds)

90 85

80 78 76

59 60 Units 60 59 55 60 56 62 52 58 54 54

of 50 50 47 48

40 Millions

C4Q24 C1Q25 C2Q25 C3Q25 C4Q25 C1Q26 C2Q26E C3Q26E

Source: IDC, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Meanwhile, our checks continue to support a largely unchanged CY26 iPhone

production outlook, though we modestly reduce shipments to reflect greater

pricing-related demand elasticity. Our latest supply chain work continues to point

to roughly 265M CY26 iPhone builds, largely unchanged from prior checks, and we

have not seen evidence of lower wafer orders at TSMC. That said, Apple typically

communicates supplier plans based on a "bull case" demand scenario and often

refines orders as early as mid-to-late October once post-launch sell-through trends

become visible. Incorporating a more significant pricing increase for the iPhone 18

into our model ($200 like-for-like starting price increase vs. our prior assumption of

$100), we lower our CY26 iPhone shipment forecast slightly to ~250M units from

252M – below the current consensus estimate of 255M ( Exhibit 3 ), but raise our

ASPs by 3%. In our view, consensus in the September quarter – and overall for CY26

– does not appear to fully reflect: (1) a more meaningful like-for-like pricing increase