Walmex (WALMEX.MX): 2Q26 Review: Another Weak Quarter, Another Push-Out. Guidance Cut

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Walmex (WALMEX.MX): 2Q26 Review: Another Weak Quarter, Another Push-Out. Guidance Cut

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22 Jul 2026 22:15:48 ET │ 12 pages

Walmex (WALMEX.MX)

2Q26 Review: Another Weak Quarter, Another Push-Out. Guidance Cut

CITI'S TAKE

Buy Walmex reported weak 2Q26 results, with Mexico SSS increasing just

1.8%YoY, well below inflation (3.4%), while consolidated EBITDA margin Price (22 Jul 26 14:00) P$48.65

declined 10bpsYoY to 9.4%, ultimately leading to lower FY26 guidance. In Target price P$60.00

our view, the quarter reinforces the key challenge facing the investment Expected share price return 23.3%

case: despite improvements in pricing, availability and omnichannel Expected dividend yield 3.7%

capabilities, operational progress has yet to translate into financial Expected total return 27.0%

acceleration. Traffic remained negative (1.1%) despite ongoing price

Market Cap P$837,764M investments, while market share gains versus ANTAD (+180bps) appear

US$48,174M less compelling when absolute growth remains subdued, particularly as

hard discounter competitors continue to post materially stronger sales

growth. The revised FY26 guidance, constant currency revenue growth of

3.5–4.5% (from 4.5–5.5%) and an EBITDA margin now expected to finish Renata CabralAC

slightly below the 10.2% delivered in 2025, rather than slightly above, +55-11-4009-7561

suggests conditions are likely to remain tougher for longer, delaying a renata.cabral@citi.com

meaningful acceleration in earnings.

Luis Felipe Terzariol

+55-11-4009-3564

Mexico: Market Share Gains Against ANTAD Are No Longer Enough — Mexico luis.terzariol@citi.com

revenue increased 3.1%YoY, supported by 1.8% SSS growth, as 2.9% ticket growth

continued to offset a 1.1% decline in traffic. Notably, even the World Cup, typically an