Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. (LYC.AX): 4Q FY26 result; minor challenges at Mt Weld and slower heavy RE ramp-up. No change to Buy thesis

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Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. (LYC.AX): 4Q FY26 result; minor challenges at Mt Weld and slower heavy RE ramp-up. No change to Buy thesis

Equity Research

22 July 2026 | 5:00PM AEST

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. (LYC.AX): 4Q FY26 result; minor challenges at Mt

Weld and slower heavy RE ramp-up. No change to Buy thesis

LYC reported a softer than expected finish to FY26 with June Q NdPrO production Paul Young

+61(2)9321-8302 |

and Rare Earth Oxide (REO) revenue of ~1.86kt/~A$290mn below our paul.young1@gs.com

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

2.26kt/~A$380mn due to some minor technical and operational commissioning

Chris Bulgin

issues at Mt Weld associated with the water recycling circuit and variable +61(2)9321-8936 | chris.bulgin@gs.com

mineralogy/ore types which impacted concentrate quality and cracking & leaching Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

(C&L) throughput, lags in sales of heavy rare earth (HRE) oxide sales, and lower

overall REO sales volumes. Furthermore, LYC has announced that the HRE circuit in

Malaysia will cost ~A$100mn more, mainly due to sourcing more expensive ex-China

equipment, and updated timelines on HRE production, which indicates a slower

ramp-up than what we were modeling.

Key takeaways

n Mt Weld and Kal C&L ramp-up: we recently visited LYC’s Mt Weld Rare Earths

mine in Western Australia with management & investors and note: 1) The

ramp-up to 1.3Mtpa (ore) is on track with the commissioning of the new plant in

the final stages, and based on design and performance, we think the plant could

do 20-30% more (1.5-1.6Mtpa), supporting >16ktpa of NdPrO production with

increasing Western world demand; and 2) Resource and reserve upside appears

significant with resource drilling to only 200m below the surface yet the deepest

mineralised hole extends to ~1km.