Risk Reward Update: Pampa Energia SA | Latin America

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update: Pampa Energia SA | Latin America

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Pampa Energia SA (PAM.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Average FX Rate (ARS/USD) 1,243.7 1,471.2 1,778.9 1,984.8

Year-end inflation (%) 44.1 31.9 21.9 7.0

Gas prices ($/MMBTU) 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.8

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Shale oil resource development RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Positive FCF form the natural gas and power Energy repricing for the legacy capacity 9.34 generation businesses Increased activity pace of Vaca Muerta shale oil EPS

Improvement on energy regulatory framework driling (US$) 6.50 10.93

Perception of Argentine country risk Additional improvements in the macro 8.74

environment

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBITDA 1,133

1,048 1,604

Changes in the regulatory framework in place, (US$, mm) 1,281

with reduction in electricity remuneration 0-10% North America

Disappointing drilling results in the initial ramp- 90-100% Latin America up of Rincón de Aranda Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Unfavorable changes to the O&G regulatory Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

framework in Argentina

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

Inst. Owners, % Active 82.4%

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x

HF Sector Net Exposure 1.9%

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a

particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) /

(Across all sectors: Long Exposure – Short Exposure).

Morgan Stanley Research 3