Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Richemont (CFRJ.J)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Mar 2026 Mar 2027e Mar 2028e Mar 2029e

Group Organic Growth in % (constant

11.0 12.1 8.5 8.6

FX) (%)

Jewellery Maison Organic Growth in

14.0 14.5 9.2 9.0

% (%)

Specialist Watchmakers Organic

1.0 4.5 6.5 8.0

Growth in % (%)

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

DOS and wholesale sales RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Mar 2027e

Swiss watch data If our assumption of an efficiency focus

Global gold and diamond pricing materialises, this would likely result in EPS Sales / 25,349

Online distributors strategy on client service, growth Revenue Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

discounting Cartier jewellery sales growing more than (€, mn) consensus data for this metric

expected

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE A material slowdown in China when the US 7,099 EBITDA

0-10% India slows down presents the biggest risk to Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying (€, mn)

0-10% Japan Richemont consensus data for this metric

0-10% Latin America Continued deterioration in the watch segment

0-10% MEA

0-10% UK OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 5,434

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland EBIT 10-20% China and India Inst. Owners, % Active 68% (€, mn) Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

10-20% Europe ex UK consensus data for this metric

10-20% Mainland China HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.6x

20-30% North America HF Sector Net Exposure 7.6%

0.74

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund EPS

View explanation of regional hierarchies here exposures held with MSPB. Information may be (€) Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market consensus data for this metric

trends.