Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Richemont SA (CFR.S)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Mar 2026 Mar 2027e Mar 2028e Mar 2029e

Group Organic Growth in % (constant

11.0 12.1 8.5 8.6

FX) (%)

Jewellery Maison Organic Growth in

14.0 14.5 9.2 9.0

% (%)

Specialist Watchmakers Organic

1.0 4.5 6.5 8.0

Growth in % (%)

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Mar 2027e

If our assumption of an efficiency focus

DOS and wholesale sales materialises, this would likely result in EPS Sales / 25,349

Swiss watch data growth. Revenue 23,763 25,697

Global gold and diamond pricing Cartier jewellery sales growing more than (€, mn) 25,046

Online distributors strategy on client service,

expected.

discounting

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 7,099

EBITDA

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE A material slowdown in China when the US (€, mn) 5,921 8,000

slows down presents the biggest risk to 6,994

0-10% India Richemont.

0-10% Japan Continued deterioration in the watch segment.

0-10% Latin America 5,434 EBIT

0-10% MEA 4,949 6,200

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING (€, mn) 0-10% UK 5,482

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Inst. Owners, % Active 68% 10-20% China and India

7.43

10-20% Europe ex UK HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.6x EPS

5.88 8.55 10-20% Mainland China HF Sector Net Exposure 7.6% (€)

20-30% North America 7.39

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate exposures held with MSPB. Information may be 3.30View explanation of regional hierarchies here inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market DPS

3.30 6.30

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short (€)

4.30MS ALPHA MODELS exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a

particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) /

(Across all sectors: Long Exposure – Short Exposure).