Sinotruk (Hong Kong) (3808.HK): 1H Earnings Preview & 2H outlook; Raise TP to HK$55.0

研报英文原文证据摘录

Sinotruk (Hong Kong) (3808.HK): 1H Earnings Preview & 2H outlook; Raise TP to HK$55.0

Sinotruk (Hong Kong) (3808.HK)

22 July 2026 Citi Research

Estimate revision – We raise our 2026-28E revenue forecasts by 13-15% to

Rmb144/157/169bn by factoring the volume upgrade of export and domestic sales

and lift our 2026-28E GPM guidance by 0.1ppt to 16.2%/16.3%/16.4% to reflect

NEV-HDT cost reduction and better scale effect. After including 2026E foreign

exchange loss of Rmb1bn, we change our 2026-28E NP forecasts to

Rmb8,963/10,791/11,675mn (from prior Rmb8,952/9,844/10,606mn).

Expect export growth momentum to sustain at least before 1H27 – (1) Africa

(>45% of total exports): Mining and infrastructure demand stays robust. Long-

term demand growth is guaranteed given Africa’s economic reliance on mineral

resources, per mgmt. (2) Vietnam: National infrastructure stimulus should drive

demand for at least 5 years. 5M26 shipments to Vietnam hit 15-16k units, far

exceeding FY25’s 20k units. (3) Australia & New Zealand: Annual export sales at

15-20k units with high ASP & profit. (4) Latin America: 1H26 export sales up 50%–

60% YoY; FY26 export sales expected at 10k+ units vs. 8k units in 2025. Brazil

manufacturing plant is in early site selection stage, which will unlock long-term

Latin American market potential after launch. (5) Central Asia: National highway &

cross-border railway construction will create sustained heavy truck demand. (6)

Europe: Current sales concentrated in Eastern Europe, with network expansion

plan for Western Europe underway.

Battery supply & cost control – (1) Battery supplier structure: CATL’s supply share

dropped from previous >50% to ~30%; CALB is now the largest battery supplier

with share >30%, followed by CATL, Weichai Fudi and EVE Energy.