Talabat Holding (TALABAT:DU): Sector consolidation prospects pick up momentum; but key concerns remain

研报英文原文证据摘录

Talabat Holding (TALABAT:DU): Sector consolidation prospects pick up momentum; but key concerns remain

Goldman Sachs Talabat Holding (TALABAT.DU)

risk from the ongoing shift toward q-commerce.

Exhibit 39: Historical M&A transactions since 2020

Transaction multiples refer to FY1 Consensus/company announced multiples

Global Range and Median is excluding Uber’s offer for Delivery Hero

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, LSEG Data & Analytics

Key risks:

Below we highlight the key risks we see to our price target and investment thesis. If any

or all of these risks were to materialize, we could consider a more positive stance on the

shares.

n Easing of competition in the food delivery business: While Talabat holds a leading

position across all of its operating markets, the food delivery sector is highly

competitive, with players such as Deliveroo, Careem, Noon and local entrants vying

for market share. With the entry of Keeta in Talabat’s market from 2H25, price wars

and aggressive discounting by competitors have impacted Talabat’s profitability. An

easing of competition and rationality of pricing could be an upside to our view.

n Lower customer and restaurant acquisition spend: The entry of new competitors

and changes in the competitive landscape is driving higher spend on customer

acquisition and retention, further pressuring margins. A less competitive

environment than we expect could reduce customer and restaurant acquisition

costs, providing upside to margins.

n Profitable expansion in new verticals: While Talabat has diversified into grocery

and retail, these verticals are still under-penetrated in the MENA region, and

achieving profitable scale presents a challenge. tMarts and Local Shops have shown